Probabilities …

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The dollar’s daily cycle may have peaked on Monday, day 13.

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Tuesday printed an inside day.
The dollar will need to break below 80.55 to print a swing high.
I will comment that the small decline in the dollar today saw a big move in gold, which suggests that gold may be sniffing out a cycle top for the dollar.

Tuesday was probably day 1 for gold’s daily cycle.

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Monday gold printed a lower low, thus easing the parameters of forming a swing low.

Tuesday gold not only formed a swing low, but rallied 1.86%.
That was enough to pierce the declining cycle trend line.

With Monday being day 28 for gold’s daily cycle, the odds are quite good that a daily cycle low was printed Monday.

And a new daily cycle this late in the weekly cycle gives high probability of a new intermediate cycle as well.

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This week is week 25 for gold’s intermediate cycle, which is in the later stages of the timing band to print a weekly low.

Since gold printed a lower low this week, the earliest that gold can form a weekly swing low will be next week.

So gold still has its entire intermediate cycle still in front of it meaning 12 – 17 weeks before the next intermediate cycle decline.

Getting back to the dollar, if the dollar is rolling over here
Then it is time to climb above the Gold Train before it leaves the station …

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6 responses to “Probabilities …”

  1. likesbullmarkets Avatar
    likesbullmarkets

    i want a poster of the gold train ! That is a great picture

  2. likesbullmarkets Avatar
    likesbullmarkets

    O sorry i got carried away. Good summery of everything LM. You have helped me understand cycles better and what to expect. BTW i get really nervous when you are late or skip a day.

  3. ALEX Avatar
    ALEX

    Thanks Again : ]

    ALEX

  4. Nik Avatar
    Nik

    Thanks LM!
    Nik

  5. mihir Avatar
    mihir

    do you expect this cycle to take out the $1800 resistance..??
    and/or maybe even the all time highs ??

    great work btw…have been following your work since only recently when i stumbled upon this blog while doing a Google search..
    i was searching to see if there was anyone who got the same results i did in the 2 yearly PM cycle…
    ie rally for 0.5 year..followed by consolidation for 1.5 year..
    we seem to b ending the long consolidation and seems to b time to rally..!
    what are your views on the 2year cycle propelling bullion to New all time highs ??

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