Cycle Trading

The way the dollar has been behaving seems like it is on a see saw.

The dollar did set a higher high on Thursday.
But formed a swing high and closed near the lows of the day.

Perhaps the dollar was setting the daily cycle trend line.

Still, the dollar is 4 weeks removed from the September low and no confirmation of a new intermediate cycle yet

I really think that the dollar wants to confirm a new intermediate cycle but cannot due to currency manipulations.

A break above 80.42 produces a trend line break and confirms a new intermediate cycle, which is my expectation.

However if the dollar does not, then it would need to break below the September low to print a new weekly cycle low.

Bonds were up today, showing some leadership over the dollar.

Thursday was day 4 of the new daily cycle.
Day 4 saw bonds close above the declining trend line.

I would view this as week 8 if bonds are rejected by the declining black trend line,

Since bonds formed a weekly swing low off the September low, a trend line break confirms a new intermediate cycle making this week 4.

Meanwhile equities were firmly rejected by the 1440 level on Thursday,

I expect with any dollar strength,
equities will continue seeking out their daily cycle low…