Big Debate …

October 3, 2012

Big Debate ..

While there is a big political debate tonight, there is no debate that the dollar has been stuck between the 80.00 and 79.50 level for the past week.
The dollar’s daily cycle is still hosting a peak on Monday, day 11.

So while the dollar essentially stayed in the range that it has been in for the past week, Gold was up marginally today by 0.19%
The Miners were down 1.69% and Oil was down a whopping 3.99%.

Yet the CRB index was up today.

The CRB printed a reversal candle on Monday (the same day as the dollar’s apparent cycle peak).

The CRB has formed a swing low and now some follow through to the upside in spite of the dollar printing a positive day and oil falling out of bed.

Maybe the CRB is sniffing out a possible downside break for the dollar.

Unless Obama knocks out Romney tonight I think a more likely turning point for the dollar will be Jobs Friday.

Something interesting about gold is that gold began a stair stepping pattern prior to the recent daily cycle low. Gold would have a big day up and then consolidate for 3 to 4 days.

Gold printed a daily cycle low last Wednesday.
Thursday saw gold take a (stair)step up. Wednesday was its fourth day of consolidation.

A downside break of the dollar would certainly have us continue up the golden staircase.

6 responses to “Big Debate …”

vorfahrt

October 3, 2012

Thanks for the awesome update. I was really surprised to see the CRB up with crude and natgas down so much today. However, oil down “miraculously” is not so uncommon in an election year I heard 😉 Overall, the picture continues to tilt in favor of pro-risk and pro-inflation short-term IMO. Looking at the daily UUP chart, MACD is almost overbought for the minuscule advance recently. Not boding too well IMO for the buck.

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nikeboy 2008

October 3, 2012

thank you for your report.

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Trond

October 4, 2012

The saudis are pumping oil galore at the moment to create headwinds for Romney who is more Israel friendly. So a long entry on crude around Nov.5th maybe 🙂

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alex

October 4, 2012

Good observation on the stair step in Gold and the apparent recent step and 4 days sideways.

It would also be good to keep in mind what Daily Cycle of an IC we are in (being the 4th or 5th would / could produce a weaker run and a quicker cycle high, right?)

Thx for your reports L.M.

ALEX

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greco8088

October 4, 2012

Wow. Dollar is dropping hard this morning!

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vorfahrt

October 4, 2012

Indeed – the question has been answered and the epic battle won by the inflation markets and lost by the US$. If this was a true bear flag in the US$ index we could see quite a move lower from here! Go team gold&silver!

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