Cycle Trading

I have been keeping a watch on the dollar believing that a daily cycle low is imminent.

While the dollar was up today, no swing low was formed.
The dollar needs to break above 79.29 to form a swing low.

Bonds did print a swing low today.

Friday was day 20 for TLT.
The daily cycle for bonds runs about 15 – 20 days.

The swing low today holds the promise of marking a daily cycle low.

Let’s see how gold reacted.

Monday was day 22 for gold.
We see that gold has formed a swing high.
Gold should now find its daily cycle low in the next 6 days, breaching the daily cycle trend line in the process.

The CRB may have gave us a preview of coming attractions.

The CRB sold off hard today, giving up just over 2%.

Vorfahrt commented,
“Thanks for the weekend report, L.M. Always helpful.
The resistance you mentioned in the $CRB seems to have worked very well in smacking it down hard today.
Does that change any cycle labeling here?
”

I have to admit that today’s sell off does make me wonder if
I should have used a fatter (red) line for the daily cycle trend line.

A day 8 labeling suggests that this cycle would form as left translated.

A day 32 labeling fits in better with what I am seeing across the commodities.

Gold formed a swing high ahead of the dollar but in concert with Bonds.

It looks like we are going to get the daily cycle correction that we were expected.

Which should set the stage for the next rally.