Cycle Trading

Bonds have been demonstrating bullish divergence over the dollar by leading the dollar since March.

Notice how bonds printed their intermediate cycle low the 3 rd week in March while the dollar did not print one until late April.

Again in August, bonds were leading the dollar.
Bonds printed another intermediate cycle low the second week of August, which was a 21 week cycle. Now bonds are on week 4 and appear to be in the process of setting the intermediate cycle trend line.

The dollar has yet to print another intermediate cycle low.
Now the dollar will form a weekly swing low if it breaks above 80.43
(Without going below than last week’s low).

Bonds also appear to be leading the dollar on the daily charts:

The dollar’s daily cycle has been confusing.
Monday is either day 11 or day 24 or even possibly day 36.
But with the dollar’s weekly cycle now in week 19, any daily cycle low could also mark a new intermediate cycle.

Bonds printed a daily cycle low August 16 th and Monday made day 16 of its new daily cycle. TLT has now entered the timing band to print another daily cycle low. It printed a reversal candle today. A break above 124.33 forms a swing low.

As we noted, bonds have been leading the dollar since March and just may still leading the dollar.